Baseball with an Altitude

Pay heed all who enter into contract negotations with Josh Fogg. The Rockies have expressed interest in signing Fogg to compete with Sunny Kim and Zach Day for the 5th rotation spot. Bad idea. Fogg has had a WHIP of over 1.40 in each of his past three seasons and it’s not like he’s been pitching half of his games at Coors. I just don’t see any chance of Fogg having success in a Rockies uniform.

In other more positive news, the Rockies have given up on signing Royce Clayton.  Good move.  Clayton has nothing to offer the Rockies during this rebuilding phase that can be of any benefit. I’ve never been much of a believer in the “bring in a veteran to offer guidance” theory. Thanks to Hurdle’s infatuation with scrub middle infielders, Clayton would be a solid bet to take substantial playing time away from any combination of Barmes, Gonzalez, Quintanilla, and Josh Wilson.  Unfortunately, the Rockies have not yet ceased attempts to sign Ramon Martinez. Let’s hope that falls through as well.

First, a public service announcement…

I’ve made this site BWAA’s new home due to the fact that WordPress allows comments to be made by anyone. BWAA’s old home at Blogger only allowed registered users to comment. Basically, this site makes it easier for you to tell me why I’m wrong (or, by some miracle, I’m right.) So drop me a line. Let me know who’s reading.

Now on to the Rox newly signed trio:

Tom Martin is a 35 year old lefty who has been better against RH hitters (.231/.335/.410) over the past three years than against LH hitters (.261/.325/.421). 

Keiichi Yabu had a very unhealthy WHIP (1.55) and BAA (.287) in his Major League debut at age 37 for the Athletics last year. 

Carlos Rivera is an irrelevant “prospect.” His AAA Round Rock (Houston Astros) numbers don’t look all that bad, but if he was any good, why would the Astros have let him go? With Shealy expected to be with the big club for most, if not all of the season, someone needs to keep the spot at AAA Colorado Springs warm until Joe Koshansky (36 HR at High A in 2005 – slated to start at Tulsa in 2006) is ready.  With Helton firmly entrenched at first base and Shealy as the backup, Rivera won’t see any time in a Rockies uniform.

While these signings aren’t great, they’re nothing to complain about either. O’Dowd is trying to get a stockpile of bullpen arms in reserve for when one or more of the main guys inevitably struggle or get injured. When they do, adequate relief will only be a phone call to the Springs away. So, despite their less than encouraging 2005 stats, Martin and Yabu do have a fighting chance of seeing some time in the big leagues this season.

Finally, Zach Day and the Rockies agreed on a $600,000 contract for 2006, avoiding arbitration. Sunny Kim and Yorvit Torrealba each submitted their figures for arbitration.  Kim requested $800K (Rox offered $600K) and Torrealba requested $1.05 million (Rox offered $815K).

“I would never use it as an excuse.”

Those eight words from Todd Helton sum up why every Rockies fan should thank their lucky stars each and every night that this team is blessed with a superstar like Todd. Not only is he a Hall of Fame hitter, a Gold Glove defender, and a great clubhouse presence, he’s also a true man; a throwback to the players of yesteryear who happens to be stuck in today’s sports society full of wide receiver divas and trade-demanding ballplayers. Helton revealed earlier this week that his injured back plagued him during the 2005 campaign. He said that he “didn’t have as violent of a swing” and that the pain “bothered me.” Yet the baseball world never heard a word about it during the season, even when his average dipped to .250 on June 20th after an 0 for 3 performance against the Astros. Despite whispers that he was losing it, Helton remained quiet. He never once gave an excuse. This is why we love Todd Helton. The entire sports world could use more men like him.

In other news, Aaron Cook signed a two year deal worth $4.55 million and a club option of $4.35 million for 2008. Over the next three years, we will look back at this deal and realize what a bargain it was for the Rockies. Cook has all the tools necessary to become the staff ace. He’s tough, he throws a nasty sinker, and he wants the ball on Opening Day. This season could very well be the season that Cook puts it all together. He’s healthy, he finished last year strong, and now he’s getting paid quite well. If he performs up to expectations, he could just be the biggest bargain in all of baseball.

If it were up to me, I’d put the Over/Under on the Rockies 2006 win total at 73. Why? Well, I believe that the Rox will be somewhat better than last year. The only question is – how much better?

Three reasons why the Rockies WILL win more than 73 games:

1. He’s tall, has red hair, and only 23 ribs in his chest. His name? Aaron Cook. It was amazing that Cook made it back to the mound in 2005 after surviving life-threatening blood clots in late 2004. Even more amazing was the way in which he pitched once he returned. It was as if he hadn’t missed a beat from the end of his 2004 season. Cookie made 13 starts, went the distance in two of them (most by any Rockies pitcher since 2001), and had a solid ERA of 3.67. Take out his first start back in a little less than a year (rocked at Coors vs. Philadelphia), and that number drops to 3.07. Armed with a nasty sinker and pinpoint control, Cook has the ability to win 15+. The big question whether or not he can last 200 innings over the grind of a full season. All things accounted for, Cook looks like he may finally live up to his staff ace expectation in 2006.

2. Allan Simpson. Ryan Speier. Scott Dohmann. Javier Lopez. What do those names have in common? At the beginning of last season, they were responsible for one of the poorest excuses for a bullpen that I have ever seen. Now, Simpson and Lopez are gone, and Speier and Dohmann have become different pitchers after a mid-season stint in the minors. Thanks to an offseason focused on shoring up the pen, the bullpen will be solid and deep. Fuentes has developed into one of the best closers in the National League. DeJean showed last year that he should have never left Colorado. Despite the fact that O’Dowd overpaid for the services of the legendary Jose Mesa (by day), aka Señor Smoke (by night), Mesa should still provide at least a veteran presence and hopefully some spot-free setup innings for Fuentes. Ray King is a good bet to bounce back from a rough 2005. Speier, Dohmann, and David Cortes all came around at the end of the year and showed promise. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the bullpen has more depth than we’ve seen in several years. Jose Acevedo, Sunny Kim (or Zach Day, depending upon who wins the 5th rotation spot), Jaime Cerda, Randy Williams, Ryan Speier, Chin-hui Tsao (eventually), Manuel Corpas, Bret Prinz, just to name a few, are waiting in the wings should a vacancy appear.

3. Another year of development for Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday, Brad Hawpe, Cory Sullivan, Luis A. Gonzalez, Clint Barmes, and Ryan Shealy will probably lead to an improvement over last year’s poor offense. With their first full year in the bigs out of the way, this core group of players should start to play with more consistency – that is, if the 2005 rookies can avoid the dreaded sophomore slump.

Three reasons why the Rockies WILL NOT win more than 73 games:

1. Sophomore slumps. They inevitably happen. It would be shocking to see all of the 2005 rookies avoid falling victim to this phenomenon. While some will most likely improve upon their numbers, there are a few that I think will struggle to match their 2005 production – most notably Clint Barmes. He started off blistering hot in April only to find himself on the 60 day DL a month later (curse those slow elevators). When he came back from the DL, Barmes was flat out awful. His .216/.256/.288 line after the All-Star Break was less than encouraging, as was his .636 OPS away from the friendly expanses of Coors. While he is undoubtedly better than his post All-Star numbers, I just don’t know how much. I don’t think it’s likely that we’ll ever see Clint Barmes play the way he did in April again.

2. Starting pitching depth and the lack thereof. The Rockies currently have only six starting pitchers that are worthy of making the starting rotation: Cook, Jennings, Francis, B. Kim, S. Kim, and Day. Last year saw several starters either injured, demoted, or traded, and 2006 might not be much different. The Rockies lack of veteran starters ready to step up in case of rotation vacancy is cause for concern.

3. Road warriors. Besides number 17, the Rockies don’t have many. Is this anything new? Definitely not. But it still is a large reason why the Rockies will fail to win games. Following is a list of the seven young players listed above (see reasons why the Rockies WILL win 73 games, #3) and their individual road OPS in 2005:

Atkins – .649
Barmes – .636
Gonzalez – .785
Hawpe – .724
Holliday – .729
Shealy – .779
Sullivan – .626

That’s not going to cut it. In all fairness to Hawpe, his road OPS was well above .800 before he injured his hamstring the game before the All-Star Break. After he came back, he clearly wasn’t himself. I’ll cut him some slack. But, while it could be argued that Barmes wasn’t himself either after returning from injury, his road OPS was nothing to write home about even before he got injured. Until this group as a whole gets their OPS up to the .750+ range, the Rox will be handicapped by their inability to score runs away from Coors.

The year we’ve all been waiting for is finally here. Seems like just yesterday we were being told that once 2006 rolls around and all those deadweight contracts are off the books, our beloved Rockies would finally begin to compete. Well, Charles Johnson ($9 million salary in 2005), Preston Wilson ($12 million), and Denny Neagle ($12 million) are all gone. CJ’s somewhere around Tampa trying to remember how to block the plate, Preston is suiting up for the Astros, and Denny is probably wondering how he went from $51 million room service to “lookin’ for a good time?” service to a boatload of community service. Well, 2006 is here but the Rockies are still not where us diehard fans would like them to be. And we sure haven’t been seeing that windfall of spending money we were expecting from the owners.

Regardless, I’m still impatiently waiting as always for the season to begin. Colorado Rockies baseball is always a great thing and I love to watch it, come hell or high loss totals. This season, I expect the boys in purple pinstripes to return to the “Rockie standard” of 72-74 wins. Still, this team seems to be a bit of a wildcard. This season could be a step in the right direction towards contention, or it could be just another year of mediocrity. The Rox are certainly capable of winning more than 74 games, but they are easily capable of winning less than 72. More on that later.