Baseball with an Altitude

2006 Colorado Rockies Opening Day Roster:

Infielders: Ardoin, Helton, Barmes, Atkins, Gonzalez, Ojeda, Carroll, Smith,
Outfielders: Hawpe, Sullivan, Holliday, Freeman, Marrero
Starting Rotation: Jennings, Cook, Francis, Fogg, Day
Bullpen: Fuentes, Mesa, DeJean, King, Cortes, Dohmann, Martin

Luis A. Gonzalez, otherwise known as Gonzo or LAG, has been flying under the radar this Spring.  The second base job was his the moment Spring Training started yet he has been playing like his very roster spot depended on it, rolling up a .390/.400/.627 line with 9 doubles, a triple, and a homer. I look forward to seeing a full season from him, in which he could easily hit .300 with 15 HR and 75 RBI.  What I especially like is his ability to hit for average on the road as well as at Coors. He hit .290 on the road last year compared to .294 at home, and I expect him to keep that up in 2006.  Seeing as he's only 26, Gonzo is prime for a breakout campaign.  If he would just walk a little more (none so far in Spring Training, only 20 in 440 ABs last year) he would be a decent option to bat leadoff. 

On the defensive side of the ball, his range and ability at second base has pretty good, which is surprising considering he is most comfortable at third base. Top second base prospects Matt Macri (AA) and Jayson Nix (AAA, despite struggling at AA) are still at least a year away from starting, so Gonzo isn't feeling the pressure of anyone breathing down his neck. Batting 7th behind Atkins and Hawpe, he could see a sizeable amount of RBI opportunities.  Add all those factors up and the Rockies could have one of the better second basemen in the National League in 2006.  If we have any hope of putting together a winning season, Gonzalez is one of the guys that is going to have to take his game to the next level.  Last year's numbers (.292, 9 HR, 25 2B) were acceptable, but they aren't good enough to help this team to 81 wins. 

Sunny Kim and Byung-Hyun Kim have a lot in common.  They both have the same last name, pitched for Team Korea in the World Baseball Classic, are members of the starting rotation of the Colorado Rockies, and currently have minor hamstring injuries (that they aggravated on the same day, no less).  That last similarity throws a loop in the Rockies Opening Day rotation plans. BK has been placed on the 15 day DL, which means that Zach Day will be replacing him for the time being in the number four spot in the rotation. Meanwhile, Sunny pitched in a simulated game today, the results of which are not yet known.  So it sounds as if the decision is still up in the air as to whether Sunny or Josh Fogg will start the season in the fifth starter role.  If Fogg gets the nod because Sunny's hamstring is too bothersome, his stay in the 5th spot would probably be short-lived. He will most likely be moved to the long man position in the bullpen once Sunny is healthy enough to take the mound.

Only five more days until the Rox take on Brandon Webb and the Diamondbacks on Opening Day.  Last year, I looked forward to the start of the season knowing that we weren't going to compete and thus the most important thing was the positive development of our young players.  Now, we're in a similar situation, looking for further development from Hawpe, Atkins, Barmes, Sullivan, Holliday, Francis, etc. yet the Rox still have a realistic chance of remaining competitive in the division.  I will also be watching the progress of the Tulsa Drillers squad that is loaded with prospects that are the future of the Colorado Rockies franchise.

When all is said and done, 2006 will have been a huge indicator as to the direction that the Rockies will be taking over the following three or four years.  Will the 2005 rookie class, now sophomores in '06, step up to the plate (forgive the bad pun) and continue their development into solid Major League regulars? Or will Rockies fans be disappointed as a once-promising crop of Rockies youngsters collectively bites the dust?  I strongly believe that it will be the former, not the latter, that comes true. The arrival of the next wave of impact prospects (Stewart, Tulowitzki and co.) in late 2006 and 2007 in combination with the current foundation being laid by the aforementioned sophomore class should have the Rockies in the race for a a division crown by 2008 at the latest.

Despite the fact that we are getting closer and closer to April 3rd, the 5th starter race seems farther away then ever from being decided. Day pitched better his last time out against Arizona, allowing only one run through five innings before allowing a two run homer before getting an out in the sixth.  Earlier today, Fogg allowed only two hits (both homers) in six innings, striking out three while not allowing a walk.  Finally, Hurdle and company are wondering if Sunny Kim's arm strength will be up to speed in time for his scheduled first start (Korea hardly used him in the WBC).  I'd still bet on Sunny being the 5th starter.  After what he did last September and as little as Day and Fogg have shown, I'd be very surprised if the Rox didn't have him on the mound either April 8th or 9th in San Diego.

Over at the Rockies Disaster Report, Gabe Stein came up with a very well-written response to one of my earlier posts in which I championed Choo Freeman as the center fielder of the future over Cory Sullivan. While Gabe didn’t change my mind, I will acknowledge that Choo and Cory are very similar players.  If you look at their minor league numbers, it’s surprising how alike they are. Take a look at their best seasons:

Sullivan (‘02 – High A):  .288/.340/.448, 560 AB, 42 2B, 6 3B, 12 HR, 26 SB, 36 BB, 70 K
Freeman (‘02 – AA): .291/.400/.444, 430 AB, 18 2B, 6 3B, 12 HR, 15 SB, 64 BB, 101 K

The only two differences are doubles (advantage: Sullivan) and walks (advantage: Freeman).  Once again, two very similar players over their minor league careers. 

The main reason that I prefer Choo to Cory is because of the opinions of scouts.  Choo has been projected as a Torii Hunter (who happens to be Choo’s cousin) type player who could develop 20-25 HR power at the Major League level, something that I don’t foresee Sullivan ever attaining.  Hunter was a late bloomer in the power department and I think Choo could be the same way.  Right now, Choo has the speed to knock triples (four already in Spring Training) and the ability to cover a lot of ground in center field.  His career batting average in the Majors, spanning 112 at-bats, isn’t very inspiring.  However, the majority of those ABs came through sporadic playing time.  It is difficult for a player to perform consistently well when he doesn’t know if his name is going to be on the lineup card or not.  Choo would benefit from a stretch of consistent playing time (like Sullivan got in 2005) to help him gain some confidence.  Another thing to remember is that Freeman was in the plans to succeed Preston Wilson in center field as soon as he was traded, but an ill-timed hamstring injury cost him that position (which opened it for Sullivan).

Out of minor league options, Choo was given his last chance to make the team this Spring and he has responded well.  He’s hitting 15 for 40 (.375) with four triples and a homer.  He’s struggling on the basepaths (2 SB, 4 CS) but is making up for it by drawing a few walks (4 BB to 8 K). Sullivan has hit well also with 12 hits in 36 ABs (.333) along with a double, triple, and two home runs. However, he has drawn only one walk to six strikeouts.  I hope the Rockies Disaster Report is right and Sullivan turns out to be a bona fide leadoff hitter because the Rox offense could badly use a quality tablesetter.  Unfortunately, I think neither Cory nor Choo gets on base at a high enough clip to be the leadoff hitter of the future.  It would be a wise move for the Rockies to attempt to acquire a center fielder in one of their next trades (such as a potential Ryan Shealy deal).

Not much news coming out of the Rockies front.  Sunny Kim has returned to camp.  With a solid start or two, I think he’ll have the fifth starter job wrapped up.  Zach Day has been atrocious, Josh Fogg has been injured, and Miguel Ascensio could probably use some time at AAA.  It would be nice if Day would string together a couple good starts to rekindle the Mets’ interest in him.  Teams with lots of money aren’t opposed to giving up talented lower level minor leaguers in exchange for MLB ready talent, and this could be one of those cases.

I’m anxious as ever for the season to begin.  It seems that these last two weeks always drag as Spring Training winds town and the season draws near.  Only (roughly) 12 more days until Opening Day…

It looks as if Ryan Shealy’s days in a Colorado Rockies (or Sky Sox) uniform are numbered.  Due to elbow problems, the experiment of converting Shealy to an outfielder has been declared over and Shealy has been told that he won’t make the team out of Spring Training.  Thus, he’s stuck at first base down in AAA, and with Todd not going anywhere, it makes sense that he will be traded.  Hopefully O’Dowd maximizes the value of a pretty good hitting first baseman and gets us a good player or two in return.

Shealy’s roster spot now will likely be given to Choo Freeman, who in my opinion is a better option for the future in center field than Cory Sullivan.  Sully doesn’t have much upside.  At the very best, he’ll hit .300 and knock 10 or 12 out of the park.  That’s not too shabby, but it’s not great and not very likely to happen either.  Freeman, on the other hand, was once rated the Rockies number one prospect by Baseball America.  He is a five tool player who could be the answer at center field.  Do I expect it to happen? Probably not.  He’s been absolutely atrocious in short stints with the Rockies before.  But his minor league numbers up to this point are pretty similar to Torii Hunter’s, who finally broke out with the power once he reached the Majors.  If Freeman were to make the same kind of transformation, that would be huge for a team that lacks center field options.  I’m all for giving Freeman a starting job and (hopefully) watching him turn into the center fielder we’ve always hoped he can become. Hey, I can dream, right?

Wow. I leave town for a few days, and when I come back, Ian Stewart has gone off the hook.  Maybe I should go back so he keeps this current hot streak up.  In case you’ve been busy memorizing how to spell the names of players on Team Japan, I’ll fill you in on what Stewart has been up to.  He’s 11 for 20 (.550) with 2 doubles, 4 homers, and a whopping 1.250 slugging percentage.  Sure, it’s only 20 at-bats, but you can never grow tired of looking at numbers like that.

*** I wrote this a little before the Rockies game began against the Brewers today. Now the game is in the 8th inning and Stewart has gone 2 for 2 with a double and a two run homer. That’s now 13 for 22 (.591) with a 1.409 slugging percentage. ***

While there is absolutely zero chance of Stewart making the Opening Day roster (barring a catastrophe in the form of injuries to Garrett Atkins and Jeff Baker), Stewart’s hot hitting does begin to pose some interesting questions.  If he tears up AA and moves on to AAA, do the Rockies shop Garrett Atkins at the trading deadline?  If Atkins continues to hit well and Brad Hawpe struggles, do the Rockies think about holding onto Atkins and moving the defensively challenged Stewart to right field? Personally, I think it would be the right move to trade Atkins (or Hawpe) when his value is high, so either at the trading deadline (if Stewart is REALLY hitting well) or in the offseason. O’Dowd has a notorious history of trading players when their value is at its lowest point, so it’d be refreshing to see him get some talented players back in return in a trade, not the garbage (Zach Day and his declining GB/FB rate) we’re used to.

All in all, it’s exciting to see Stewart hitting so well. Ian is the future of the Rockies franchise, and while I know that he needs more work in the minors, part of me hopes that the Rockies call him up to Denver to see if he can catch on (think Miguel Cabrera during the Marlins 2003 championship run).

Both Josh Fogg and Zach Day are making starts today, which means we’ll get to see which one bounces back from his disappointing first start of the Spring.  Meanwhile, Miguel Ascensio looks like he may be a sleeper/darkhorse to make the team.  He threw three scoreless innings yesterday and the coaches had nothing but good things to say about him. 

I’ll be out of town until Tuesday. Hopefully the Rox start stringing together good pitching performances while I’m away.  Some of the outings (Yabu, Esposito, Jennings) of late have been pretty awful.

The latest rumor in the baseball world is that Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera could be available at the trading deadline.  As soon as I read that, I couldn’t get the idea of Miguel Cabrera manning third base or left field at Coors Field out of my head.  This kid is only 22 years old but has already had back-to-back seasons of 33 homers.  He has 40 homer power, but that isn’t his only great batting attribute – he hits for high average. At one point in August of last year, he was hitting .356, but ultimately ended up at “only” .323.  He did all this while playing half of his games in one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in all of baseball, Dolphins Stadium (Pro Player).  Cabrera is a bona fide superstar and he should be an All-Star for at least the next ten years.

It’s not often that an opportunity like this comes along.  Usually a young stud like Cabrera is better protected than the President by his team.  The Marlins, however, have shown that they have no problem dealing their soon-to-be expensive talent away for prospects.  This is a once-in-a-decade opportunity for O’Dowd to make an aggressive attempt to acquire a young franchise player. He has the trading chips. If I were the GM, I would not hesitate to deal a combination of any of the following: Ian Stewart, Troy Tulowitzki, Ubaldo Jimenez, Juan Morillo, Ryan Shealy, Brian Fuentes, Garrett Atkins, Jeff Francis, Jason Jennings, etc.  The Fish showed interest in Fuentes last year. He’s at the height of his value coming of a fantastic 2005 and is due for a bit of a letdown this year, especially with the history of Rockies relief pitchers following great years with poor ones. If the Rox traded Fuentes and Stewart for Cabrera, I would be ecstatic. You might think I’m crazy to want to trade Stewart, but Miguel Cabrera is THAT good.  If Stewart fulfills all expectations and becomes what we’ve hoped he can become, he’ll be on the same level as Miguel Cabrera.  However, that scenario isn’t guaranteed to happen.  I’m all for trading the unproven prospects for the proven talent.

It depresses me to know that O’Dowd will likely make very little effort to throw his hat in the Cabrera sweepstakes.  Cabrera is the type of player that the Rockies can build around for years to come.  We have the trading chips to make it happen.  I see no reason why we should sit back and watch another team steal Cabrera from the Marlins.  I think it’s about time Dan O’Dowd and company did some stealing of their own.