Baseball with an Altitude

For inmates on death row, it can be a good thing.  For the Rockies offense, it's a very bad thing.  Not being able to execute with runners in scoring position has been hurting this team over its past 20 games or so, but especially in its last two series against the Cardinals and Astros.  With only ten runs in the past five games and eight runs or more just twice in the last 23, the Rox are struggling to put runs on the board to back up their surprisingly good starting pitchers.  The inability to come through with a big hit with runners in scoring position and two out is becoming increasingly frustrating.  Check out the averages of the Rockies starters in that situation:

Hawpe – .429, 3 for 7
Helton – .333, 1 for 3
Sullivan – .300, 3 for 10
Holliday – .238, 5 for 21
Atkins - .167, 3 for 18
Barmes - .143, 3 for 21
Gonzalez – .000, 0 for 12
Ardoin – .000, 0 for 14
TOTAL – .170, 18 for 106

That final line says it all.  The Rox are hitting .170 this season with runners in scoring position and two outs.  If this team wants to contend deep into September and possibly into October, someone needs to step up and start fueling some two out rallies.

Another reason why bagels are being thrown up on the scoreboard with regularity is the horror show combo at the bottom of the lineup, the two headed monster of Ardoin and Barmes.  The honeymoon is over; those two have to go. We were wowed by Barmes' white hot April last year and we fell in love with Ardoin's cannon after watching Closser's noodle arm.  However, some people saw right through Barmes' April stats and identified him as a fluke – the high batting average on balls in play (BABIP), the poor May numbers, the continued poor hitting upon returning from the episode with the deer meat, etc. Now, we're finally seeing the real Clint Barmes – an undisciplined hitter that can't lay off the first pitch no matter where it is in the strike zone.  Last season, Barmes struck out 36 times in 386 at-bats, a ratio of one strikeout per 10.7 ABs.  He's already struck out 22 times this year (compared to only 3 measly walks) for a ratio of one K per 6.1 ABs. 

Ardoin, is actually doing worse than Barmes, as hard as that is to believe.  His .526 OPS is downright awful.  He's struck out 19 times, walked only once, and has a pathetic two RBI.  For the Rockies to succeed, they need production out of all spots in the batting order, and having two deadweights in the 7 and 8 hole isn't going to win many ballgames for this club.  The solution? By June, we could very well have one.  Say it with me now: "Tulowitzki and Torrealba!"

Finally, on a more positive note, I have to admit that I was wrong.  Cory Sullivan has been fantastic so far in this young season whereas Choo Freeman, while not necessarily doing anything wrong, has yet to do anything well. On the defensive side of the ball, Cory has been incredible.  I forgot over the five months of the offseason how much fun it is to watch this guy run down fly balls in center field. Contrary to popular belief, Cory Sullivan, not the double play, is a pitcher's best friend.  His great defensive play so far in 2006 was expected; his tremendous offensive production, however, was not. Raise your hand if you thought he would have a .500 slugging percentage on May 14th.  Me neither.  Cory's team leading 13 doubles and 6 triples have been a very pleasant surprise and a big boost to an offensive stuck in neutral.  He still needs to work on his pitch selection, as the leadoff hitter probably shouldn't be leading the team in strikeouts (33).  The walks, however, are coming at a pretty decent clip, as he already has 11.

As the Rockies head home to face the Dodgers, they sit at 21-17, one game behind the red hot San Diego Padres (it pains me to say that). The Rockies are overdue to put up double digit runs, as they haven't done so since April 15th against the Phillies. It's always fun when an NL West foe comes to Coors Field, but I say the Rox make this stay in Denver as uncomfortable for the Dodgers as possible.

As the Rockies head into their second series against the Astros, it's time to actually take a look back at what happened at Coors against Houston and in St. Louis. 

First, the series against Houston was great.  After watching Jason Jennings' shutout performance, I've downgraded his status from "mystery" to "enigma."  Who knows what to think about this guy?  He can be brilliant one start (see Opening Day and last Saturday) and then get shelled the next. This season is a big one for him because if he can't put a full season together of a sub 5.00 ERA and instead just ricochets back and forth from great starts to terrible ones, trade options could be explored.  Hopefully he gets on a roll now that April, his traditional poor month, is finished. 

As for the St. Louis series, the real story was Matt Holliday.  Wow…he has rebounded from his early season slump in a BIG way!  Not only has he mashed well at home, but he is actually hitting higher on the road (.319) than at home (.294).  When was the last time you ever saw him do that?  Plus, he has hit half of his very nice 10 HR total on the road.  Speaking of big HR numbers, both Brad Hawpe and Holliday are on pace for 40 HR seasons.  While that is unlikely to happen, I think 30 for each is a realistic expectation and the Rox would be thrilled to get that kind of production out of their corner outfielders.  And if that was the case, it would be a tough decision regarding who to ship out when Stewart is ready, because Atkins, Hawpe, and Holliday are all blocking him.  One of them, unfortunately, must go.  Hopefully that answer becomes clear over the season, but if not, and Stewart is ready out of Spring Training 2007, we should be guaranteed to get some fine players in return for one of that trio.

Now, as the Rox head into Houston, I think taking 2 out of 3 from the Astros would be big.  If we lose another series, our momentum would be all but gone.  Socking it to a solid Houston team would continue to reinforce the idea that this team is a serious contender in the NL West (who isn't?), not an early season pretender (see the 2005 Baltimore Orioles).

Please forgive how pathetic and short this post is, as my life has been extremely busy lately.  My goal heading into the Houston series was to take 2 of 3 from Houston and 2 of 3 from St. Louis.  While it didn't happen exactly like that, I'm still very pleased with the 4-2 stretch. Jeff Francis just might be turning the corner towards becoming the front of the rotation pitcher that we've all expected him to be.  His 3.16 ERA as well as a total of 3 ER allowed over his last four starts are very encouraging signs.

Taking two out of three from Houston would be great for this team's morale to show that they can rebound from two tough losses to St. Louis.  The Rox have Jason "Shutout" Jennings going on Friday followed by Aaron "Ace" Cook on Saturday and Jeff "Franchise" Francis on Sunday.  I like our chances!

I'm back with Minor League Update #3. I've decided to make this a bi-weekly feature, as I have so much going on I wouldn't be able to stay on top of it week to week at this time. I am going to start a feature this coming mid-week, reviewing each position within the system and profiling the top prospects at each position.

First, I'd like to chime in on the happenings in the major leagues. It's good to see Helton's name back in the lilneup. He really solidifies the lineup, and gives the Rox a very strong 3 thru 6 in the lineup. One of the best in the league statistically.

After watching last nights game, I feel the Rox can be in this for the long haul this year. We are 2-3 for the month of May so far, not bad considering the opponents (ATL, CIN, HOU). It's important to keep our head at least close to water level throughout the month, as this is our toughest month opponent wise. And boy, do the Rox win their games at home with excitement!!! Five of the seven wins at home are in the last at bat! It's never over till the fat lady sings!

Back to the minor leagues. A player I want to feature this week is Ryan Mattheus, the 22 year old righthanded starter for the High A Modesto Nuts. He's off to a very solid start after struggling his first 2 years. One might ask why a pitcher can suddenly start doing so well in the Cal League, a notorious extreme hitters league. Well, when Mattheus was drafted as a 19th round draft and follow from Sacramento CC, he was dominating the collegiate ranks. Colorado, after signing him for $700,000, attempted to change his mechanics. He seperated his hands very early in his delivery, which isn't ideal for a pitcher, but created a slight hesitation and deception. The Rockies attempted to get him to hold the ball in his glove longer, but the results weren't as hoped. His arm would fall behind his body, causing him to short arm the ball. This led to him getting hit very hard his first 2 seasons. Finally, Colorado let him go back to his more natural delivery. So far, the results have been promising. In 5 GS, he has pitched 29.2 IP, 29 H, 14 R, 10 ER (3.03 ERA), 1 HR, 8 BB, 29 SO. Those numbers are impressive, but even more so in that 10 of those runs (8 earned) came in one bad start April 21st (4 IP, 12 H, 10 R, 8 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HR). Eliminate that one bad start, and Mattheus has been down right filthy. Those numbers would translate to: 25.2 IP, 17 H, 4 R, 2 ER, 0 HR, 7 BB, 25 SO. That is a 0.70 ERA!!! A sleeper definitely….

Now, a quick top 5 in major categories throughout the system for the first month of play (min 70 AB, starters-20 IP, relievers-7IP):

BA: 2B Corey Wimberly (.346), IF Jason Van Kooten (.338), SS Troy Tulowitzki (.337), 1B Carlos Rivera (.333), OF Matt Miller (.330)

RBI: OF Matt Miller (25), OF Jeff Baker (23), SS Chris Nelson (21), 3B Ian Stewart (18), 2 tied at 17

HR: 2B Matt Macri (5), OF Jordan Czarniecki (5), 4 tied with 4

SB: OF Dexter Fowler (16), 2B Eric Young Jr (16), 2B Corey Wimberly (15), IF Jason Van Kooten (8), 2 tied at 7

IP: Samuel Deduno (33.1), Alan Johnson (33), Enmanuel Ulloa (31.2), Juan Morillo (31), Xavier Cedeno (30.2) 

W: Juan Morillo (3), Ching-Lung Lo (3), Alan Johnson (3), Alberto Arias (3), 12 tied at 2

SV: Manuel Corpas (6), Brett Strickland (6), Scott Beerer (5), Bret Prinz (3), 3 tied at 2

BB: Samuel Deduno (17), Zach Parker (15), Xavier Cedeno (15), Ubaldo Jimenez (14), Juan Morillo (13)

SO: Samuel Deduno (43), Alan Johnson (36), Enmanuel Ulloa (33), Franklin Morales (31), 2 tied at 29

ERA (starters): Samuel Deduno (2.70), Zach Simons (2.73), Juan Morillo (2.90), Xavier Cedeno (2.93), Ryan Mattheus (3.03)

ERA (relievers): Bret Prinz (0.00), Scott Beerer (1.13), Jarrett Grube (1.23), Justin Hampson (1.33), Darren Clarke (1.80)

TEAM STANDINGS: (W-L, GB, Home, Road, RS, RA)

Colorado Springs: 9-19, 8.5 GB, last place, 5-7 H, 4-12 R, 99 RS, 144 RA (-45)

Tulsa: 16-12, 1 GB, 2nd place, 9-6 H, 7-6 R, 148 RS, 139 RA (+9)

Modesto: 15-13, 3.5 GB, 2nd place, 3-7 H, 12-6 R, 138 RS, 120 RA (+18)

Asheville: 15-12, 5 GB, 3rd place, 5-6 H, 10-6 R, 159 RS, 132 RA (+23)

PREDICTION PLAYERS:

Tulowitzki (Top Hitter): .337/.396/.547, 95 AB, 16 R, 12 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 6 BB, 22 K, 2 SB, 1 CS

Fowler (Breakout): .321/.407/.528, 106 AB, 26 R, 9 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 11 BB, 21 K, 16 SB, 7 CS

Quintanilla (Disappointment): .235/.316/.275, 102 AB, 18 R, 4 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 10 BB, 23 K, 0 SB, 1 CS

Morales (Top Pitcher): 1-1, 5 G (4 GS), 3.58 ERA, 27.2 IP, 29 H, 14 R, 11 ER, 1 HR, 11 BB, 31 SO

…just look at Brad Hawpe's road statistics.  After watching the 2004 version of the Rockies resurface during the two game series sweep suffered at the hands of the Atlanta Braves, I needed something to cheer me up. The pathetic offensive showing on Monday against Hudson along with the Rox bullpen bringing back bad memories tonight had left me depressed. The only thing I could think to do to cheer myself up was to take a gander at Brad Hawpe's road stats:

.446/.508/.946, 1.454 OPS, 3 doubles, 2 triples, 7 home runs

Wow.  As soon as I saw those numbers (recently updated after Hawpe's 3 for 3, 1 HR performance tonight), the horror show that took place in Atlanta was but a distant memory. Hawpe is the National League leader in hits and he has done the majority of it away from Coors Field.  Brad, keep the hit party rolling right on into Coors Field for a showdown with ridiculously red hot Cincinnati. We're going to need all the offense we can get to match Adam Dunn and the rest of the Reds!

As April draws to a close, give yourself a pat on the back if you expected the Rockies to be 5 games above .500 at the end of the first month.  The Rox got their second sweep of the season, this time against the Marlins, thanks to some timely hitting by Barmes on Friday, a loud HR by Atkins on Saturday, and a stellar outing by Byung-Hyun Kim on Sunday.  The pitching star of the series was Scott "The Dohbermann" Dohmann. He notched his first career save in the 10th inning of Saturday's game and then came up big in the finale, shutting down a Marlins rally in the 7th and pitching a scoreless 8th.

May looks to be a tough month, as the Rockies host the surprising Reds, the Astros, the Dodgers, and the revamped Blue Jays.  They also head to St. Louis and Houston for a series and then finish up the month with a 9 game NL West road trip.  If the Rox are still at or above .500 at the end of May, it might be time to start upping our chances of winning the division. That would be a refreshing change for Rockies fans that are usually thinking about the offseason at the end of May.

Before I begin to rip Hurdle, I'm happy to say that the Rockies had a successful series in Philly.  They won two and lost two, which might not look "successful" on the surface, but the way the team played in the losses was encouraging.  The offense scored five runs in each loss, which is pretty good considering that they are playing on the road and without Helton getting on base the middle of the lineup.  While Jennings' start on Wednesday was disappointing, the team still fought back from an early 7-1 defecit to cut the Phillies lead to only two.  As I've said before, this team has some fight in them.  They aren't going to give up on a game until the final out is recorded and they showed that once again in Philadelphia.

In other slightly belated news, Todd Helton has been diagnosed with acute terminal ileitis, an inflammation of the end of the small intestine.  While it sounds pretty bad, doctors are saying that Helton just needs rest before he (potentially) begins a rehab assignment sometime soon.  I'm sure the entire Rockies community breathed a large sigh of relief upon hearing the diagnosis.

Unfortunately, Clint Hurdle has also been diagnosed with a disorder known as acute terminal sacbuntitis. I researched the disorder in Grey's Anatomy (the book, not the TV show), and it reads as follows: "An unusually extreme reliance on the sacrifice bunt which ultimately kills all chances of a big inning"  Yes, it's true.  Hurdle has been incredibly reliant on the sacrifice bunt lately.  With the offenses around Major League Baseball putting up huge numbers early, Hurdle has suddenly switched to old school style managing, playing for one run instead of the big inning.  I normally wouldn't mind this too much if this was the 2004 or early 2005 Rockies teams that couldn't score runs on the road.  However, this 2006 Rockies squad has been scoring runs everywhere they play without too much trouble.  Still, Hurdle insists upon bunting in some of the most unnecessary situations. In the first inning of today's game, Cory Sullivan led off with a double.  Clint Barmes then proceeded to lay down a sac bunt despite the fact that the slumping Matt Holliday was following him in the 3rd spot in the order.  Barmes has been one of the better hitters of the series and he's bunting in the first inning? Since when did we play for one run in the first inning?  Naturally, Holliday struck out and Sullivan was stranded.  In the 7th inning of Tuesday's game, Brad Hawpe, arguably the best hitter left in the Rockies lineup, was up with runners on 1st and 2nd and nobody out with the Rockies nursing a one run lead.  The Phillies brought in a lefty to face Hawpe, prompting Hurdle to panic and tell Hawpe to bunt.  He missed on the first two tries and then struck out.  No runs were scored in the inning.  Then, in the 9th inning of the same game, Garrett Atkins leads off the inning with a single.  The Phillies bring in a lefty and Hurdle again orders Hawpe to bunt, despite the fact that he looked uncomfortable doing it in the 7th.  Hawpe fails to get it down and he strikes out. Hurdle, are you going to learn to not mess with an offense that is clicking and instead just let the players swing the bats?

Speaking of Hawpe (a Baseball with an Altitude favorite), it's time for an update on his season statistics through today's game:

Overall: .357/.419/.667, 4 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 17 RBI, 9 BB, 23 K (too many K's)
Home: .279/.392/.372, 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 8 BB, 9 K
Away: .417/.432/.917, 2 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 1 BB, 14 K (road warrior)

Thanks to Miguel Ojeda's single and Eli Marrero's incredible hook slide in the 10th inning, the Rockies are back in first place after taking two of three from the Giants.  Unfortunately, the series also brought some bad news, as Todd Helton went on the 15 day DL with a mysterious stomach ailment. Not much is known as to exactly what is wrong with Todd, but the good news is that he has been released from the hospital today.  Also, Garrett Atkins was the latest victim of the illness that has been circulating the Rockies clubhouse (Matt Holliday and Jason Jennings had it before Atkins), which forced him to miss the final two games of the series. He should be back in the starting lineup tonight against Philadelphia.

Jeff Francis turned in his best outing of the year on Sunday, showing pinpoint control of his offspeed pitches while limiting the Giants to just one run on four hits over 6 2/3 innings. Unfortunately for him, he left with the lead only to watch the bullpen give it up the next inning.  As expected, it looks like Francis is in for another up and down year.  Before every start, Rockies fans will probably be asking themselves, "Are we going to see the Jeff Francis who got lit up by San Diego? Or will we see the Francis that tamed the Giants?"  Inconsistency is pretty typical for a young pitcher.  Hopefully by the end of the year we'll start seeing a little more consistency from start to start out of Francis.

As for the offense, the Rox badly missed Helton and Atkins, and it showed. The Rockies mustered only 15 hits and seven runs over the final two games of the series against some very mediocre pitchers. Still, there have been several silver linings.  First, Matt Holliday is third in the Majors with 22 RBIs despite a .268 batting average.  He's been struggling all year, but as long as he keeps driving in runs, he'll eventually snap out of his early season funk.  Second, Eli Marrero has shown that he can be an acceptable replacement for Helton for the next two weeks.  He's bombed two homers in his last three starts, including a mammoth blast yesterday to center through a stiff wind.  While I find it painful to watch him at the plate, with the crazy leg kick and the all-or-nothing swing, Marrero is still getting the job done.  Third, and perhaps most importantly, this team is showing a knack for late inning comebacks. They scored four runs in the 9th to win on Friday, left the tying run at second in the 9th on Saturday, and won in extra innings on Sunday.  If this team has the mentality that they are never out of a game, we could see more dramatic games in which the Rockies steal victory from the jaws of defeat.

I’m back with the second installment of the MLU (Minor League Update). This will become a weekly post coming on Saturday mornings. Sorry, I was unavailable last weekend.

Tied for first place in the Texas League, Tulsa continues to roll as expected. Standout performers include Tulowitzki, Stewart, Czarniecki, and Koshansky. In the early go, there have been some hot starts (Fowler, Czarniecki, Miller) and slow starts (Wimberly, Macri, Smith) throughout the system. The key is to not get down or high on a prospect due such a small sample size, as players start hot every year and fall off, and visa versa. Wimberly is an example of a player who has really started to heat up the past couple days. He was below the Mendoza line, and now he’s almost to .300 (he’s at .289). So far, my breakout player (Fowler) and disappointing player (Quintanilla) predictions look right on. Also, it seems as though the minor league teams have taken a page from the Rockies this year, and have struggled at home while playing well on the road.

Here's some top prospects and how they are performing the first 2 weeks into the season (bold stats indicate in top 3 of league, asterisks indicate yearly award winner predictions):

Hot Top Prospects (Team):

Jeff Baker(CSS)-.304 AVG, .365 OBP, .429 SLG, 4 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 18 RBI, 1 SB

Ian Stewart(TUL)-.297 AVG, .387 OBP, .547 SLG, 9 2B, 2 3B, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 0 SB

*Troy Tulowitzki (TUL)-.305 AVG, .364 OBP, .475 SLG, 8 2B, 1 3B, 7 RBI, 1 SB

Matt Miller (MOD)- .373 AVG, .421 OBP, .627 SLG, 4 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 1 SB

*Dexter Fowler (ASH)-.351 AVG, .393 OBP, .684 SLG, 6 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 5 SB

Steven Register (TUL)-0-0 (3 GS), 17.2 IP, 18 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 17 SO, 1.25 WHIP

*Franklin Morales (MOD)-0-0 (2 G, 1 GS), 9.2 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 2 ER, 0 HR, 6 BB, 9 SO, 1.45 WHIP

Samuel Deduno (MOD)-1-1 (3 G, 2 GS), 15.2 IP, 16 H, 9 R, 7 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 22 SO, 1.28 WHIP

Zach Simons (ASH)-1-1 (3 GS), 17 IP, 14 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 12 SO, 1.06 WHIP

Slow Starters (Team):

Tony Miller (CSS)-.162 AVG, .244 OBP, .189 SLG, 1 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 1 SB

*Omar Quintanilla (CSS)-.190 AVG, .299 OBP, .224 SLG, 2 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 0 SB

Matt Macri (TUL)-.250 AVG, .328 OBP, .404 SLG, 5 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 1 SB

Jose Valdez (MOD)-.162 AVG, .205 OBP, .270 SLG, 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 0 SB

Brandon Durden (ASH)-1-1 (3 GS), 14.1 IP, 17 H, 12 R, 9 ER, 1 HR, 6 BB, 13 SO

TEAM STANDINGS (GB-games back, H-home, R-road, RS-runs scored, RA-runs allowed):

Colorado Springs: 6-10, 3.5 GB, last place, 3-5 H, 3-5 R, 64 RS, 89 RA (-25)

Tulsa: 10-5, – GB, tied for 1^st place, 5-4 H, 5-1 R, 94 RS, 87 RA (+7)

Modesto: 7-7, 3.5 GB, 2^nd place, 1-4 H, 6-3 R, 70 RS, 70 RA (0)

Asheville: 8-6, 3.5 GB, tied for 2^nd place, 3-3 H, 5-3 R, 81 RS, 60 RA (+21)

Wow.  I, for one, did not see that coming.  Nine runs in three games at Coors against the back end of a weak Padres rotation? That's embarrassing. However, Zach Day's start today might have been even more embarrassing.  3 2/3 innings pitched, 11 hits allowed, 8 earned runs, 4 walks, and only one strikeout. By this point, anyone left on the Zach Day bandwagon has surely jumped off and burnt it to the ground.  His sinkers weren't sinking, his sliders weren't sliding, and his flat fastballs were getting lined all over the Coors outfield.  Let's hope Byung-Hyun Kim makes it back before it's Day's turn in the rotation again, but that's doubtful.

Back to the offense. The Rockies lack of execution with runners on third and less than two outs as well as their inability to get key two out RBI hits doomed their chances of winning the series. Twice in today's game, the Rockies blew chances to narrow the gap. Down 4-1 in the bottom of the 2nd, Miguel Ojeda grounded into a double play with runners on first and third with one out.  Then, in the 5th, down 8-2, the bases were loaded with one out for Todd Helton, who flew out to shallow right. Atkins then flew out, ending the threat and wasting the opportunity.  You know the offense is struggling when they are missing out on what should be easy opportunites to put runs on the board. Also, the Rockies hitters mustered only one two out RBI on a sacrifice fly by Matt Holliday.  They stranded a total of seven runners in scoring position.

One bright spot did come out of this homestand thus far in the person of Ramon Ramirez.  He has thrown 5 1/3 innings with only three hits allowed, no earned runs, no walks, and eight strikeouts.  While the appearances have been pretty low pressure (he's pitched mostly in blowouts), his command and stuff has looked very good.

If somebody had asked me before the season began if I would be happy with an 8-7 record overall and a 5-1 record on the road, I would have said yes in a heartbeat.  While the Rockies did play poorly the last two series against San Diego and Philadelphia, they are still above .500 and in second place in the West.  The last week has been disappointing, but overall the first two weeks have been a success.  The Rox will only have to take two of three from the G-men this weekend and they'll be back in first.  With Jennings starting on Friday and Cook following him on Saturday, I'm feeling confident about our chances, offensive woes be damned, heading into the San Fran series.